Sheryl Mcintosh's Blog: Will May and Barnier really dance?

Poor Prime Minister May, forever trapped by Brexit. She never wanted to do anything other than a very small, Brexit In Name Only deal. Yet the suave Monsieur Barnier could see through only his francophone goggles, a way to smash the UK.

So, after nearly 2 years of negotiation we have actually done precisely nothing towards Brexit. A deal is on the table that will be rejected and there are not enough back-up options to fallback too The rock is rolled up the hill, only for it to come tumbling down again.

No side is covered in glory, the Remainers acting like a fifth column in the UK help egg on the EU to do their worst deal with the UK in the hope of forcing a second referendum. The Leavers in the Conservative party have hung around, unsure of their own position and too lazy to come up with a workable alternative to the BINO proposed by May. The EU themselves have sat in their smug utopia casually shrugging at what is actually an existential crisis for the Union.

But I can't see Chequers, as much as it is in reality a better deal for the UK than the EU would like to do, really working. The EU will insist it is watered down and that will mean it won't keep May in power if the Leaver Conservatives can manage to topple her.

Where this would leave the UK is in a bad place, the basics of an exit deal need to be completed to prevent economic and social dislocation next year. Perhaps Barnier will see sense, but I think this is hard as the current UK offer is not great from the other side of the channel - it is exactly the pick and mix they have said they want to avoid and so whilst is still BINO will create an itch for the EU.

After months of hiatus, Brexit is going to be sorted in the next two months at last - in terms of whether the UK falls into political chaos or a BINO deal is done. I reckon it is still 50-50 at best for May.